Anyways, the lesson I am taking away from this is that it is, in most cases, better to stick with what you are familiar with. After all, once you have done all of your homework, become familiar with the storm system setup, and decided to go chase, be patient and stick with your forecast. Otherwise, you just might go home empty handed 😉
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For example, a couple of days ago, northeast OK/sw MO had a small (2%) probability of a tornado. Looking through the forecast data, I decided that I would bite and take a quick drive down to Vinita, OK and wait for my storm. My initial plan was to wait for the Vinita storm and follow it into sw MO where the dynamics for tornado possibilities were the highest. However, my storm initiated and started heading to me. I was pleased. Until I saw what looked like some rotation on the radar to my south and east. Uncertain of what I was seeing and the fact my storm had not YET organised, I dropped south and east to go have a look.
To my surprise (and simultaneous disappointment) I saw a “mini” supercell complete with inflow band, slight striations and a wall of dust being kicked up under this pseudo-rfd outflow boundary further to my southeast. Seeing that my initial storm STILL had not started organizing, I went further to investigate. What I found was exciting. A small rfd outflow gust boundary was blowing across a lake and in turn kicked up several small gustnadoes over the lake (gust-water-spout-nado?). I was minimally impressed and had my fun near the little storm. However, once the excitement was over, I went back to the radar only to see that in that short period of time “investigating” my little storm, the now much more organised and now tornado warned supercell storm to my north was crossing into southwest Missouri…and I was so far out of position that I would not be able to catch up to it or even see it.
Remember, my original forecast was from Vinita, OK and follow the storm up to Springfield area. As my disappointment set in, my frustration also grew. Not only did I blow my own chase by “curiosity” that put me out of position, it also put me in a position to miss the actual storm process entirely.
So how does this relate to investing? Simple. My data analysis was correct. However, my FEAR of being wrong or missing “The Storm” had me being “curious” about other close storms that “maybe” could have done something that were not part of my original forecast plan nor were they even in a good environment for tornadogenesis. However, my fear of “being wrong” pushed me out of bounds and cost me the entirety of the chase.
I allowed FEAR to become a road block in my decision making process.
As The Rich Dad says:
“Fear is understandable. Taking risks, making changes, it’s all scary. It’s alright to feel afraid. What’s not alright is letting your fear overwhelm you to the point that you don’t act. That’s when fear goes from being natural to being a roadblock standing in your way of true freedom.”
“Cynicism is another form of fear. It’s a distrust that prevents you from having the confidence to move forward.”
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